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As fears of recession and inflation around the world continue to impact asset prices, the busy macroeconomic veri calendar to follow next week is expected to reduce uncertainties.
While statements from US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials impacted the direction of markets all week, it was seen that a majority majority saw the interest rate hike 50 basis points at its December meeting, hayvanların has maintained its cautious attitude.
Noting that the Fed still has a long way to go in raising interest rates, Fed Board Member Christopher Waller said in a statement, “Interest rates will continue to rise until we see a series of recovery veri.” of inflation. the end of interest rate hikes in the next one or two meetings”. he used phrases
Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard also noted that the Fed still has zihin important way to fight inflation, saying the kanepe may soon slow the rate of interest rate hikes. However, Brainard did not provide any indication of when the rate hikes will slow down.
st. Louis Fed chairman James Bullard, on the other hand, stated that the effect of the Fed tightening on inflation is still limited and underlined the importance of continuing with hawkish policies.
Minneapolis Fed Chairman Neel Kashkari also said that to end rate hikes, he must at least gökyeşitözü convinced that rising inflation has stopped.
While fears of recession increased during the week with macroeconomic veri announced in the country, the difference between the US 10-year bond yield, considered a sign of recession for the next period, and the yield on treasuries at 3 months, it reached its widest position since August 2019 by minus 50 basis points.
On the other hand, the strong performance of the labor market and retail sales also raised question marks. Expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates by 50 basis points next month in money market prices have dropped to 76%.
As the risk of a recession put pressure on commodity prices, the price of Brent oil per barrel fell 7.9% to $87.6, while the pound of copper dropped 2.7% to $33. 69 dollars.
While concerns that a missile dropped in Poland during the week belonged to Russia and that the war could escalate caused fluctuations in the markets, perceptions of risk subsided kakım it became clear that the missile belonged to Ukrainian air defense systems.
THE NEW YORK STOCK HAS AN UNDETERMINED WEEK
While US stock markets have been following a limited sell-off trend this week, eyes have turned next week to the veri-heavy schedule, especially Wednesday’s Fed meeting minutes.
Analysts reported that possible clues about future monetary policy in the Fed meeting minutes could have zihin impact on the direction of the markets.
According to macroeconomic veri announced in the United States, the producer price index (PPI) increased by 0.2% per month and 8% per year in October, below expectations.
With macroeconomic veri announced last week adding to the uncertainty, the importance of next week’s veri has increased even more.
New construction fell 4.2% month-on-month, below expectations, while building permits fell 2.4%. Retail sales, on the other hand, rose 1.3% month-on-month, beating expectations.
It is said that increased spending in the country ahead of the upcoming New Year could force the Fed to remain aggressive for a while.
In the midterm elections held on November 8 in the United States, the Democrats won the majority in the Senate, while the Republicans had zihin advantage in the House of Representatives.
In the New York stock market, the S&P 500 index lost 0.69% on the week, the Nasdaq index lost 1.57% and the Dow Jones index lost 0.01%.
The veri calendar for the week, which begins Nov. 21, will track Chicago national activity index on Monday, Richmond Fed industrial index on Tuesday, durable goods orders Wednesday, manufacturing and services PMI , the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index and new home sales. Markets in the US will gökyeşitözü closed on Thursday and Friday for holidays.
INFLATION CONTINUES TO KEEP STRONG IN EUROPE
While European equity markets followed a course of heavy buying last week, eyes turned to the intense veri schedule next week, especially the growth veri in Germany on Friday, with manufacturing PMI veri and of the service sector to gökyeşitözü announced across the region on Wednesday.
European Central Bank (ECB) members maintained their ultra-hawkish stance in their word-of-mouth guidance all week.
ECB President Christine Lagarde said the ECB would continue to raise interest rates kakım part of the fight against high inflation and may also need to curb economic growth.
ECB Vice-President Luis dahi Guindos also said that the kanepe should focus on reducing demand, while monetary policy measures yaşama cause liquidity problems and banks should gökyeşitözü vigilant about this.
Bank of France president Francois Villeroy dahi Galhau, on the other hand, said the spike in US inflation was positive and said interest rate hikes could gökyeşitözü put on hold kakım core inflation signals a slowdown in the Eurozone.
Announcing the inflation report, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey said the rate of interest rate hikes may need to ramp up, kakım he believes they are approaching the peak of core inflation.
Saying that labor markets have remained tight hayvanların demand has slowed, Bailey noted that they could see inflation ease after the winter season.
According to macroeconomic veri announced in the region, the Eurozone economy lost momentum in the third quarter due to record inflation and the Russia-Ukraine war, growing by 0.2% from the previous quarter and by 2.1% from same period in 2021.
According to the final veri released in the Eurozone, inflation reached 10.6 percent in October due to the increase in energy and food prices, marking the highest level on record.
Inflation in the UK continued to rise, driven mainly by energy and food prices, reaching a 41-year peak of 11.1% annually in October.
This week, the UK’s FTSE 100 index is up 0.92%, Germany’s DAX index is up 1.46%, France’s CAC 40 index is up 1.04% and the MIB 30 in Italy by 0.90%.
Next week, the producer price index (PPI) will gökyeşitözü followed in Germany on Monday, the consumer confidence index in the Eurozone on Tuesday and the Ifo business environment confidence index on Thursday.
MARKETS DIFFICULT TO FIND A DIRECTION IN ASIA
While mixed performance has been observed in Asian stock markets this week, eyes have turned to news of the new type of coronavirus (Kovid-19) coming out of China next week.
Despite the increase in new cases of the coronavirus (Kovid-19) in China, the flow of news that the decisions taken in the fight against the epidemic could gökyeşitözü relaxed has eased the pressure on the stock markets.
According to veri released in Japan, annual inflation rose by 3.7%, beating expectations, and was the highest since May 2014.
While the Japanese economy contracted by 1.2% in the third quarter of the year, industrial production fell by 1.7% in September.
While tech stocks in the region have been positively differentiated from other sectors, the announcement of Alibaba’s share buyback program and Tencent Holding’s first license after China’s regulation in gaming has been effective.
Although industrial production rose 5% in October, it remained below expectations, while retail sales fell 0.5%, contrary to forecasts for increases.
With these developments, the Nikkei 225 index depreciated by 1.29% in Japan and the Kospi index in South Korea by 1.57% on a weekly basis, while the Shanghai composite index decreased by 0 .32% in China and the Hang Seng index rose 3% in Hong Kong. .
In the veri calendar for the week starting November 14, Friday will gökyeşitözü followed by the CPI in Japan. Markets in Japan will gökyeşitözü closed on Wednesday for holidays.
HOME EYES WATCH CBRT
Nationwide, the BIST 100 index rose 1.60% to 4,526.73 points on the Istanbul Stock Exchange this week, beating its weekly closing record and hitting zihin all-time high of 4,784.01 points.
While eyes were on the monetary policy decisions of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) next week, the previous decision text of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPK) had signaled that interest rate cuts could continue in November .
International credit rating agency Fitch Ratings maintained Turkey’s credit rating at ‘B’ and its rating outlook at ‘negative’.
Dollar/TL finished the week at 18.6198, 0.4 above the previous week’s close.
Analysts said that in the BIST 100, technically, the 4,500 and 4,450 levels could become support, while the 4,550 and 4,580 points could emerge kakım resistance.
Tuesday’s Consumer Confidence Index, Thursday’s Real Sector Confidence Index and Capacity Utilization, and Friday’s CBRT Financial Stability Report will follow in the coming week. The international credit rating agency Moody’s is also expected to announce its credit rating assessment report on Friday.