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The United States is nearing the end of the strongest monetary tightening cycle in nearly 30 years.
With the interest rate decision to gökyeşitözü announced by the Central Bank (Fed) on Wednesday November 2, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments after the meeting should reduce monetary policy uncertainties in the coming period.
In the United States, where inflation has peaked in the past 40 years, the tightening of monetary policy, which began with a 25 basis point hike in March, continued with a 50 basis point hike in interest rates in May. and 75 basis points in each of the last three matches.
While it is considered certain that the Fed will raise interest rates by 75 basis points at the meeting this week, expectations that there will gökyeşitözü zihin 80% probability of a 75 basis point interest rate hike at the December meeting. last week it fell to 44 percent.
The change in question came after the news in the US press and the statements of Fed members.
BOND INTERESTS ARE AT THE HIGHEST OF THE LAST 14 YEARS IN THE USA
In a report in the Wall Street Journal, it was said that some Fed officials are starting to signal their intention to both slow the pace of rate hikes soon and stop rate hikes early next year.
Analysts said the newspaper is closely followed in the financial world due to its news which from time to time contains important clues to the Fed’s political steps and recalled that the news that the benchmark rate may have increased by 75 basis points. before the June meeting had zihin impact on market expectations.
Ahead of the monetary policy meeting that will begin tomorrow and whose decisions will gökyeşitözü announced on Wednesday, one of the members of the Fed, San Francisco Fed Chairman Mary Daly, who gave the final say, said it is time to move on with small steps in tightening monetary policy.
Daly stressed that the slowdown is not completely stopping and said the Fed should also start thinking about the consequences of zihin excessive and rapid rise in interest rates.
Following Daly’s remarks, the 12-week selling pressure on the bond market has been seen to have eased, while US 10- and 5-year bond yields have returned from their 14-year peak.
Growing fear of the recession
Indicators that the country’s economy could go into recession have recently begun to strengthen.
While the difference between the 10-year US bond rate and the 3-month treasury bill yield, which is a prelude to a recession in the Fed studies, fell below zero for the first time since February 2020, in the Fed studies. kanepe, if the difference between the yields on these two assets falls below zero, the country will gökyeşitözü between 6 and 6 months of age and is expected to go into recession in 18 months.
In the swap markets, the 3-month forward rates on these two assets have been below zero for a while.
The veri on the real estate market, which occupies zihin important place in the US economy, also raise questions about the country’s economy.
While the average interest rate for a 30-year mortgage (home loan) in the country has reached its highest level since 2001 at 7.16 percent, this situation is causing the housing market to stagnate day by day.
New home sales in the country fell 10.9 percent month-on-month in September to 603,000 due to rising mortgage interest rates and high house prices.
Last month, second-hand home sales fell 1.5% monthly in September and took their decline to month 8, while the home start fell 8.1% on a monthly basis. monthly in September.
The S&P Case-Shiller National Home Price Index rose 13% in August from the same period last year, showing that the rise in house prices continued to slow from previous months.
The home price index in 20 cities across the country also declined 1.3% month-on-month in seasonally adjusted terms, recording the fastest decline since March 2009.
MACROECONOMIC DATA SIGN AGAINST THE STAGE
According to other macroeconomic veri announced in the US, the Manufacturing Industry Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to 49.9 with a monthly drop of 2.1 points in October, falling to the lowest level in 28 months, marking the first contraction of the sector since June 2020. has veri so.
The country’s service sector PMI also declined 2.7 points to 46.6 in October from the previous month, demonstrating the continued contraction in the services sector.
While the Personal Consumer Spending Price Index, which the US Federal Reserve (Fed) considers zihin indicator of inflation, rose 0.3 percent per month and 6.2 percent per year in September, kakım in August, the fact that the annual increase was lower than expected has reinforced the expectation that inflation may have peaked in the markets. .
The lead price index for personal consumption expenditures, which excludes food and energy products, increased 0.5% month-on-month in September, in line with expectations, and increased 5.1% annually, to below market expectations.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, on the other hand, fell to 102.5 with a monthly drop of 5.3 points in October, the lowest level in three months due to concerns about inflation.
Pessimistic US COMPANIES
Although the profitability of the announced corporate balance sheets declined significantly in the third quarter, the emphasis on recession is seen to gökyeşitözü prominent in expectations for the future.
In the Amazon report it was stated that people’s disposable income decreased due to inflation and this situation negatively impacted the company’s operations.
In the October issue of the Beige Book report, which includes assessments of the current state of the US economy, the Fed reported that US companies have become more pessimistic about the economic outlook with growing concerns about weakening demand.
While the aforementioned developments restrict the Fed’s reach in fighting inflation, fears of a slow recession and tightening expectations are leading to inflation.