According to the World Energy Outlook 2022 (WEO) report from the International Energy Agency (IEA), the global energy crisis exacerbated by the war launched by Russia in Ukraine leads to global and long-term changes.
While the greatest shocks caused by the global energy crisis are felt in the natural gas, coal and electricity markets, energy markets remain fragile due to ongoing geopolitical and economic concerns.
In the scenario based on the policies announced globally in WEO, investments in clean energy are projected to increase by more than 50 percent to over $ 2 trillion annually by 2030, kakım measures taken by countries against the energy crisis. In this scenario, the increase in demand for coal should gökyeşitözü temporary with the support of nuclear power, while the markets will rebalance with investments in clean energy.
THE DEMAND FOR FOSSIL FUELS DECREASES
As a result of investments in clean energy, global emissions are projected to reach their highest point in 2025 and international energy markets will undergo a profound transformation during this period.
With today’s policies, the demand for fossil fuels will peak for the first time, the use of coal will decline in a few years and the demand for gas will reach the pilate level by 2030. The demand for oil, on the other hand, is expected to reach the peak. level of the pilate by the end of the 1930s, with the increase in sales of electric vehicles. Therefore, the demand for fossil fuels is expected to steadily decline from the mid-2020s to 2050s.
However, in the current political scenario, the share of fossil fuels in the global energy portfolio falls from the current 80% to 60% in 2050. Global carbon dioxide emissions are decreasing from 37 billion tons in 2050 to 32 billion tons in 2050.
While this level of carbon dioxide emissions causes global temperature rise to reach 2.5 degrees by 2100, this increase is quite high compared to the targets set to avoid the most devastating effects of climate change.
US $ 4 TRILLION INVESTMENTS IN CLEAN ENERGY REQUIRED
If the current growth rates of solar, wind, electric vehicle and battery technologies are maintained in the same way, a more rapid transformation will gökyeşitözü achieved than in the policy-based scenario.
Although clean energy investments will exceed $ 2 trillion per year in 2030 in the current policy scenario, in the “2050 Net Zero Emissions” scenario these investments must reach $ 4 trillion per year in the aforementioned period. This means that investments have increased nearly three times from today’s levels.
RUSSIA WILL NOT EXPORT FOSSIL FUELS LIKE OLD
After the war in Ukraine, started by Russia, the world’s largest exporter of fossil fuels, the country’s fossil fuel exports are not expected to return to the 2021 level.
Russia’s share in the international energy trade is expected to decrease from 20% in 2021 to 13% in 2030 in the current political scenario, while the share of the United States and the Middle East is expected to increase.
This winter is expected to gökyeşitözü a difficult time in the Northern Hemisphere due to a lack of natural gas supply, and the winter of 2023-2024 will gökyeşitözü much more difficult.
On the other hand, kakım part of efforts to reduce dependence on Russia in the long term, the demand for natural gas is declining. The increase in world gas demand remains below 5 percent over the period 2021-2030 and remains stable towards 2050.