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The “possibility that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may later soften its policies”, increased with macroeconomic veri announced yesterday in the US indicating a strong labor market, complicates prices.
Yesterday the number of JOLTS vacancies in the US rose to 10.717 million in September, contrary to market expectations.
While it is considered certain that the kanepe will raise interest rates by 75 basis points at today’s meeting, the verbal guidance of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is of great importance for the coming period.
Yesterday, the difference between the yield on US 10-year bonds and the yield on 3-month treasuries fell to minus 20 basis points, and then stabilized at minus 6 basis points. While this indicates that the country’s economy could go into recession in the Fed’s studies, the widening gap between the two assets reinforces the risk of recession.
While the uncertainty about the monetary policy steps the Fed will take in December continues in money market prices, the kanepe is expected to raise interest rates by 75 basis points with a probability of 49%.
BRENT OIL AND COPPER ON THE RISE
The pound of copper, which rose 3 percent yesterday with news that China will abandon its “zero Covid-19” policy, is trading at $ 3.5, up 0.1 percent on the new day.
In addition to the flow of news in China, the price per barrel of Brent oil is 95.2 dollars with a 1 percent increase in the following minutes, after rising 1 percent yesterday due to the decrease in oil reserves in the US. .
Yesterday, with these developments, a weighted trend for sales in the New York stock market was followed, kakım the S&P 500 index depreciated by 0.41 percent, the Nasdaq index by 0.89 percent and the ‘Dow Jones index of 0.24 percent. Index futures contracts in the US started the new day with a rise.
While a strong European buying trend was seen yesterday, it was seen that investors acted cautiously ahead of the Fed’s monetary policy decisions today and the Bank of England tomorrow.
THE INCREASE IN INTEREST WILL CONTINUE TO FIGHT AGAINST INFLATION
Christine Lagarde, president of the European Center (ECB), said yesterday in a statement that the ECB will continue to raise interest rates to fight inflation, even though the likelihood of a recession in the Eurozone has increased after the third hike. consecutive rate.
Stating that the longer inflation remains at such high levels, the greater the risk of it spreading to the economy, Lagarde said: “Our task (ECB) is price stability and we must ensure it using all the tools at our disposal. . determined to gam whatever it takes to bring inflation back to our 2 percent target. ” he used the phrase
Yesterday, the FTSE 100 index gained 1.29% in England, the DAX 40 index gained 0.64% in Germany, and the CAC 40 index gained 0.98% in France. Index futures contracts in Europe started the new day up.
THE BUY WEIGHTED TRADITION CAN BE SEEN IN CHINESE BAGS
A mixed pattern is observed in Asian equity markets prior to the Fed’s interest rate decision. The flow of news that China may abolish the “zero Covid-19” policy in March 2023 supports the trend of heavy buying in Chinese equity markets.
With these developments, the Shanghai composite index in China, which rose 2.6% yesterday, gained 1.2% today and reached 3.003 points at the close. The Kospi index in South Korea also rose 0.07% and closed at 2,337 points.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 index ended the day at 27,663 points down 0.06%, while the dollar / yen parity is trading at 147.3, 0.6% below its previous close.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was at 15,827 points with a 2.4% premium, while India’s Sensex Index was at 60,934 points with a 0.3% depreciation.
Analysts said the Fed’s interest rate decision is in the focus of investors today and noted that the German manufacturing purchasing managers’ (PMI) index and private sector employment in Germany. euro zone and ADP in the US are important on the veri agenda.