Central Bank Governor Şahap Kavcıoğlu announces the latest inflation report of the year.
The Central Bank raised its year-end inflation forecast to 65.2%. In the previous report, the estimate was 60.4%.
2023 ESTIMATE OF 22.3 PERCENTAGE
The Central Bank raised its forecast for the end of 2023 from 19.2% to 22.3%. The forecast for 2024 was set at 8.8%.
Highlights of Kavcıoğlu’s statements:
Despite severe supply shocks, domestic economic activity continues uninterruptedly and sustainably.
The indicators for the second half of the year show that exports have remained at high levels and the dynamics of investments have remained robust.
“LIMITED SIGN OF SLOW IN THE THIRD QUARTER”
The growth projections for 2023 have been revised significantly downwards on a global scale compared to the previous reference period.
Leading indicators since the beginning of July point to a limited slowdown in growth in the third quarter due to weakening foreign demand.
“THE IMPROVEMENT OF THE CURRENT BUDGET CONTINUES”
We continue to monitor the impact of the structural transformation on the current account balance. The improvement in the current account balance continued in the second quarter.
At the end of this process, in which energy costs have increased in zihin extraordinary way on a world scale, with the normalization of energy prices, our country will reach zihin equilibrium with foreign countries, in which it has a surplus of current account while growing .
“RISKS TO LOWER EXPORTS INCREASE”
Downside risks on exports have increased compared to the previous reporting period.
In August, the share of investment and export loans in total commercial loans exceeded 28%, reaching the highest level in the last 20 years.
Leading indicators for the third quarter of the year point to a more moderate trend in demand conditions than in the previous quarter. Investment trends remain strong.
We believe that in order to maintain the momentum we have achieved in industrial production and the increase in employment, the financial conditions should gökyeşitözü favorable, especially through the cost of financing.
Thanks to the effectiveness of the macroprudential measures we put in place, we have observed changes in the composition of credit in line with our targeted credit policy.
“DECREASE IN THE COMMERCIAL RATIO OF CONSUMER CREDITS”
After the macroprudential regulations introduced for loan interest rates, we see that the monetary transfer has been sustained and the TL commercial loan rates have dropped to around 10 points.
While the ratio of consumer lending to commercial lending has decreased, the weight of investment and export lending in commercial lending has increased significantly.
As part of our liraization strategy, we attach importance to increasing TL’s share in the passive composition of the banking sector.