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The summary of the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (PPK) of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) on 20 October, when the official rate was reduced by 150 basis points to 10.5%, was published.
In summary, recalling that consumer prices rose 3.08 percent in September and annual inflation reached 83.46 percent, it was reported that the most significant contributor to the rise in inflation came from by energy and service groups.
The summary mentions factors affecting inflation and states that the weakening effect of geopolitical risks on economic activity continues to increase worldwide.
The summary states that world growth forecasts for the next period continue to gökyeşitözü updated downwards and there are widespread assessments that the recession is zihin inevitable risk factor.
“Although the negative effects of supply constraints in some sectors, particularly in basic foodstuffs, have been reduced thanks to the strategic solution tools developed by Turkey, the upward trend in producer and consumer prices continues on zihin international scale. The effects of high global inflation on inflation expectations and international financial markets are closely monitored; however, central banks in developed countries point out that rising inflation may take longer than expected due to rising asset prices. energy, supply and demand imbalance and labor market rigidity. Efforts continue to produce solutions with new applications and support tools developed by central banks to increase uncertainties in financial markets.
“THE PRESSURE ON THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR IS FOLLOWED CLOSELY”
In the PPC summary, it was reported that outflows from both debt and equity markets continued in October in parallel with global risk appetite in portfolio flows to developing countries.
In the summary, it was emphasized that the volatility of long-term bond rates of developed countries and the trend in global financial conditions have kept alive the risks associated with portfolio flows towards developing countries, showing a more positive performance. compared to similar economies.
In the summary, it was stated that the strong negative supply shocks caused by increases in energy costs caused by geopolitical developments, price formations far from economic fundamentals, and increases in global prices for energy, food and agricultural commodities they continued to gökyeşitözü effective in increasing inflation.
In summary, it is stated that strong growth was recorded in the first half of the year and the leading indicators for the second half showed that the slowdown in growth continued due to the weakening of foreign demand: “The effects of external demand pressures on the manufacturing industry on domestic demand and on supply yetiklik, limited for now, are closely monitored “.
“THE EMPLOYMENT TREND IS KEPT”
In summary, it was stated that in August employment growth slowed in line with the loss of momentum in economic activity, hayvanların employment gains remained more positive than in similar economies.
Looking at the sectors that contributed to the increase in employment, the summary highlighted that the growth momentum was supported by structural gains and added that “Survey indicators and high frequency veri indicate that the upward trend in employment it maintains itself, although it loses momentum. “
In the summary, it was also mentioned that the high trend in energy and gold imports continued to negatively impact the current account and the following was noted:
“Temporary foreign trade veri in September and high-frequency veri in October indicate that the loss of momentum in exports continues. Imports, which have slowed to a limited level excluding energy and gold, maintain their strength thanks to the high level. of energy and gold imports Despite the increase in prices observed due to the increase in revenues from services, the continuing upward trend in revenues from services continues to support the current account balance: “The possibility of a recession in the main export keeps current account risks alive. It is important for price stability that the current account balance becomes permanent at sustainable levels. “
“THE APPROACH FOCUSED ON LIRALIZATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE EXPOSED”
In the summary, it was stressed that the stance of monetary policy will gökyeşitözü determined with a prudent approach, focusing on achieving the objective of sustainable price stability, taking into account the origin and persistence of the risks to the inflationary outlook and the extent to which which yaşama gökyeşitözü controlled by monetary policy.
The summary states that a liralization-oriented approach will continue to gökyeşitözü exhibited in line with the objective of sustainable price stability in monetary policy, which also takes into account the risks to financial stability. with the contribution of the announced macroprudential measures, it is carefully monitored. The Council will continue to strengthen its tools to support the effectiveness of the monetary transmission mechanism “.
In the summary, it was stated that the Board foresaw that the disinflationary process would begin with the reestablishment of the global peaceful environment, kakım well kakım the measures taken and implemented with determination to strengthen sustainable price stability and financial stability.
The summary states that the effects of the decrease in foreign demand on the conditions of total demand and production have been carefully monitored.
“Support for financial conditions is essential to support the acceleration of industrial production and the trend of increasing employment at a time when uncertainties about global growth and geopolitical risks have increased. In this context, the Board decided to reduce the policy rate by 150 basis points. The Board, in the next meeting, said: “After a similar step, the end of the cycle of interest rate cuts was on the agenda. In order to institutionalize price stability in a sustainable way, the CBRT continues to review a comprehensive policy framework that encourages permanent and reinforced liralization across all policy instruments. The objective will gökyeşitözü to support the development of Turkish lira deposits, increase Turkish lira-denominated assets in the guarantee structure of OMO loans, gradually reduce the amount of foreign exchange swaps and strengthen foreign exchange reserves.
“TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION THE EVOLUTION OF THE FINANCIAL COSTS OF LOANS”
The summary states that the credit policy, guarantee and liquidity phases, whose assessment processes have been completed, will continue to gökyeşitözü used to strengthen the effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission mechanism.
In summary, where the demand for long-term fixed income and Turkish lira assets is increasing and the trend of the yield curve in the direction of monetary transmission efficiency is closely monitored, the expression “The Board will monitor the trend of the financing costs of loans that provide efficiency gains in targeted areas, together with the growth rate of loans, so kakım to ensure transfer protection. “
The summary included the following assessments:
“The effects of developments in liquidity and the distribution of the Turkish lira on the price of deposits and loans, the effects of changes in exchange rates on inflation, the effects of developments in currency-protected deposit products on reverse currency substitution, the depth and stability of the currency markets, and price stability are being analyzed and the necessary policy measures continue to gökyeşitözü developed. In line with the main objective of price stability, the CBRT will continue to use all instruments with determination in the framework of the liraization strategy kakım long kakım strong indicators indicate a permanent decline inflation occurs and the medium-term target of 5 per cent is reached and the continuation of the upward trend in foreign exchange reserves and the permanent decrease in financing costs they will positively affect macroeconomic stability and financial stability offense land suitable for its continuation in a healthy and sustainable way.
In the summary, it was underlined that the Council supported the creation of a holistic macro policy mix that includes all stakeholders, with strong policy coordination, in order to ensure price stability, and that decisions will continue to gökyeşitözü taken in a transparent, predictable and veri-oriented framework.